Almost everywhere you look lately, there is a public debate about immigration.
Whether it is the enforcement of the new executive orders from the Trump administration, the increasing tensions in Europe or the pre-election debates about immigration policy and the rise of religious intolerance here at home, it is clear that immigration is one issue that is going to keep people talking.
My recent column disagreeing with US Vice President JD Vance’s take on the issue ruffled more than a few feathers of those who think there is some infallible teaching on the right way to go about border security to which I must give obsequium religiosum, and so prudence would suggest that I steer clear of the issue for the time being.
But prudence is a virtue I’m yet to attain, so I will once again stick my head into the lion’s mouth and address one of the key problems in the immigration debate: truth.
As we approach the upcoming federal election, there will be many opinions on migration policy, and it is helpful to listen to a broad range of views to assist in forming our own. We also need to ensure that the information we are receiving is true and double-check against the facts.
Let me offer one example that really got to me this week.
Ben Fordham is my go-to for morning talkback radio and has the second-highest rating breakfast radio program in the country.
This week, he announced that “for every one baby born in Australia last year, we took in four people from overseas.”
“According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics,” he said, “Australia’s population grew by 552,000 people last year. Overseas migration accounted for 445,000. Australia’s natural increase was only 106,000. So let me repeat. For every one baby born in Australia last year, we took in four people from overseas.”
“It’s not an exaggeration,” he told listeners.
Except it was an exaggeration.
Here’s what the data actually tells us.
The financial year ending 30 June 2024 is the most recent data available from the ABS. In that year, there were 289,100 registered births, not the 106,000 claimed by Fordham. But there were 182,700 deaths, which leaves us 106,400 net additions to Australia’s population through birth.
It wasn’t only the number of births that was inaccurately reported by Fordham. He also got the migration numbers wrong as well.
The ABS tells us there were actually 666,810 migrant arrivals to Australia in the year ending 30 June 2024, and 221,170 departures, leaving us with a net migrant intake of 445,640 people. (One of the things that frequently gets lost in immigration debates is that hundreds of thousands of migrants leave Australia each year and return to their country of origin.)
If Fordham was using the accurate figures in his commentary, he would have needed to say something like: “For every one baby born in Australia last year, we took in 2.3 people from overseas.”
If he was to include the migrants who left Australia during that same time, the more accurate comment would have been: “For every two babies born in Australia last year, Australia’s net migration increased by three people.”
It’s more accurate, but much less dramatic.
These numbers may still be too high, particularly when there is such a lack of available and affordable housing, but if we are going to have an honest conversation about immigration policy, we need to be honest about the data.
And there is another data point that needs to be considered.
Australia’s current fertility rate—the average number of babies for each woman—is 1.50, well below the rate of 2.1 required to replace our population.
If it continues to decline, we will soon have more in the over 65s age bracket than in the under 18s, and a workforce that is completely under-resourced.
While some jobs can and will be overtaken by artificial intelligence, AI cannot build a house, pave a road nor provide nursing care to a large ageing population.
And AI bots don’t pay the taxes that fund government services either. For that, you need humans and if you are not giving birth to them, you need to attract them to your shores from overseas.
So by all means, let’s have a conversation about immigration policy. But let’s base it in truth and not sensationalism.