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The next pope: Lists abound, certainty does not

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Prelates gather ahead of the funeral Mass of Pope Francis in St Peter’s Square at the Vatican, April 26, 2025. Photo: OSV News/Remo Casilli, Reuters

After the funeral and burial of Pope Francis 26 April, the attention of the world turned to who would be the next pope.

The news media, blogs, pundits and people on the street all seem to have their favorite candidate or a list of “probable” next popes, but the College of Cardinals as a whole does not.

The conclave to elect a new pope is scheduled to begin 7 May in the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican.

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The cardinals who were in Rome when Pope Francis died 21 April began meeting in “general congregation” the next morning. Each day more cardinals arrived.

The general congregation is open to all cardinals, including those who are over 80 years of age and not eligible to enter the conclave to vote for a new pope.

The general congregation handles “important matters” in the continued operation of the Roman Curia, but it also is the place where cardinals from across the globe have an opportunity to speak about the needs of the church and the world and the kind of person who could respond to those challenges as pope.

In the four daily general congregation meetings before Pope Francis’ funeral, 67 cardinals spoke during the “shared reflection on the church and the world,” according to Matteo Bruni, director of the Vatican press office. Another 20 spoke in the morning 28 April.

papal conclave
Cardinal Rolandas Makrickas, coadjutor archpriest of the Basilica of St. Mary Major in Rome, presides over vespers with members of the College of Cardinals at the basilica April 27, 2025. (CNS photo/Lola Gomez)

Comments from cardinals who elected Pope Benedict in 2005 and Pope Francis in 2013 indicated that the final vote depended largely on what they had said during those pre-conclave meetings. Pope Benedict’s prominent role as dean of the college during the “sede vacante” following St John Paul II’s death also gave him a platform for speaking out about the needs of the church.

Most lists of the “papabile” or potential popes were compiled while Pope Francis was alive and have nothing to do with the current discussions in the general congregation.

In fact, as the cardinals arrived in Rome and joined the meetings, they were required to take an oath to “promise, pledge and swear, as a body and individually,” to observe the rules for the meeting and the coming conclave and “to maintain rigorous secrecy with regard to all matters in any way related to the election of the Roman Pontiff.”

The lists compiled and published before Pope Francis’ funeral had five names in common:

  • Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, Vatican secretary of state under Pope Francis.
  • Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, who had been pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelisation.
  • Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.
  • Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem.
  • French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, archbishop of Marseille.

When Pope Francis was hospitalised in March, Catholic News Service spoke about the process of electing a new pope with Kurt Martens, a professor of canon law at The Catholic University of America in Washington.

Making lists of “papabile,” he said, “is a nice hobby.”

Cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican March 12, 2013, to elect a successor to Pope Benedict XVI. Pictured are: U.S. Cardinal James M. Harvey, archpriest of the Basilica of St. Paul Outside the Walls, left; U.S. Cardinal Edwin F. O’Brien, center; and Italian Cardinal Giuseppe Versaldi, right. (CNS photo/Vatican Media)

The lists, Martens said, usually are prompted by the concerns and viewpoint of the person making the list.

But to know “who is a possible pope in the eyes of the cardinals,” he said, “you have to ask yourself the question: What are they looking for? How do they look at the church and the world today? And what is the best profile of someone to become a pope then?”

As the general congregation meetings proceeded, the answer to those questions should have become clearer to the cardinals. How much they might share with the public is a different question.

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