After President Donald Trump, Pakistani mediators, and Iranian officials said a framework has been reached for a deal to end the war in Iran, a Catholic expert in peacekeeping said that while there is cause for optimism, key obstacles remain.
Trump said 14 June that an agreement had been reached, and Pakistani mediators said there would be a formal signing on 19 June. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed 15 June that the country will sign the memorandum of understanding, according to Iranian state-run media.
Mary Ellen O’Connell, a professor at Notre Dame Law School who specializes in international law and conflict resolution, said she is “a bit more optimistic” about the development than Trump’s other claims that an end to the months-long conflict was near.
“He has associated the current effort with his birthday and his trip to Europe – he very much wants a success,” she said. “He is also coming under increased pressure from his party and his base to end the unpopular, damaging war.”
Trump celebrated his 80th birthday 14 June with a UFC show featuring seven fights on the White House South Lawn.
However, O’Connell cautioned that “major obstacles to a deal” remain, including a lack of trust between the parties and Israel’s ongoing war in Lebanon against Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite militia allied with Iran.
“Iran appears to be in a position to continue at the current pace without assurances in both instances,” she said. “The way to rebuild trust is through a staged approach. The US, might for example, offer a good faith assurance through an initial large release of assets. If Iran takes commensurate steps to open the straits, allow in demining technology, and the like, the next release can occur.”
Israel and the US jointly launched the attacks on Iran 28 February, and Israel’s role in the framework remained unclear as of 15 June. In expletive-laced comments to Axios on 14 June, Trump questioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judgment after Israel’s strike in Beirut while the deal was coming together.
Trump and Netanyahu have been longtime allies, and the deal potentially places them at odds, analysts have said.
Trump said the strike delayed the deal for a few hours, adding, “It is so bad – I couldn’t believe it. An hour before we are supposed to sign the deal.”
Israeli officials, however, have expressed defiance toward the deal and indicated the country’s military will not end its indefinite occupation of southern Lebanon, which has also harmed the Christian communities there. The Israeli military carried out a drone strike on a car in Lebanon 15 June, according to Reuters, after the US and Iran announced the final deal.
Asked about the role of Israel in the deal, O’Connell said Trump “has one way to end the war.”
“He can cut off all weapons and military technology to Israel with immediate effect. The president can achieve his deal with Iran this way. It would also be the right thing to do as a legal and moral matter,” she said.
